Amerikaanse inflatie stabiel, maar blijft dat ook zo?

Worries about US inflation being too low are very 2013. US January CPI edged up to 1.6%YoY from 1.5% in the previous month. Energy was the main contributor, with electricity, gas and fuel oil rising sharply. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, actually decreased 0.1%-point to 1.6%YoY. Rents were the main driver of core inflation this month, rising 0.3%MoM. And there probably is more to come later this year. Rents follow house prices developments with about a 1.5 year lag, as rising house prices slowly push people towards rental homes. The lag means that most of the 10+% house price increase of 2013 has yet to feed through in rents. Shelter contributed 0.7%-point to inflation in 2013, but this could rise above 1%-point later this year. This will not push inflation into Fed panic territory anytime soon, but rents are a component to watch nonetheless this year.

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