The Amsterdam housing market…
…will crash spectacularly because
- Consumer confidence is plummeting
- Interest rates are rising and credit standards are being tightened
- China, energy prices, and all that
- The Amsterdam premium: houses are heavily overvalued vis-à-vis the rest of the country
- Prices are at a 300year-high: What goes up, must come down
- Dutch society starts to age, and people don’t want to get old on the hardly accessible fourth floor of a small, nosiy and badly isolated Amsterdam apartment
- The tax deductibility of mortgage interest payments will have to be sobered some day.
…will remain resilient, even while US and other markets go down, because
- Demand on the Dutch housing market structurally exceeds supply
- The Dutch economy is in great shape, and labour market tightness continues to guarantee high employee purchasing power
- The Amsterdam premium: in the future too, everybody wants to live here!
- Price patterns that have applied for 300 years, do not necessarily extend to the future.
- There’s nothing wrong with an ostrich attitude
More evidence pro and contra is highly welcome.