Should I stay or should I go?

The Amsterdam housing market…

…will crash spectacularly because

  • Consumer confidence is plummeting
  • Interest rates are rising and credit standards are being tightened
  • China, energy prices, and all that
  • The Amsterdam premium: houses are heavily overvalued vis-à-vis the rest of the country
  • Prices are at a 300year-high: What goes up, must come down
  • Dutch society starts to age, and people don’t want to get old on the hardly accessible fourth floor of a small, nosiy and badly isolated Amsterdam apartment
  • The tax deductibility of mortgage interest payments will have to be sobered some day.

…will remain resilient, even while US and other markets go down, because

  • Demand on the Dutch housing market structurally exceeds supply
  • The Dutch economy is in great shape, and labour market tightness continues to guarantee high employee purchasing power
  • The Amsterdam premium: in the future too, everybody wants to live here!
  • Price patterns that have applied for 300 years, do not necessarily extend to the future.
  • There’s nothing wrong with an ostrich attitude

More evidence pro and contra is highly welcome.

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